While I’m in curmudgeon mode, I don’t quite understand the “clinched a playoff spot” celebrations. You haven’t won anything. Ruining a clubhouse with champagne is not worth a third wild card.
I was very surprised to see the Yankees celebrating in this fashion. Act like you’ve been here before, especially when they have been here many times before.
Being a strict Jamesian, there is an obligation to poo-poo stolen bases. I find it much more interesting that Shohei legged out seven triples to go with his 51 home runs than that he stole 51 bases. Both are demonstrating the same thing, that it’s unusual for sluggers to be fast.
The bottom line in the Jamesian view of steals is that they do very little to increase offense. For example, using Bill James’ mid 1980s runs created formula I figured Ohtani’s runs create (RC) three ways; first with no alterations, second with no stolen base attempts, and third, turning all his home runs into doubles.
| Season | RC | RC no SB attempts | RC HR as Doubles |
| 2018 | 69 | 69 | 53 |
| 2019 | 68 | 67 | 56 |
| 2020 | 18 | 17 | 14 |
| 2021 | 122 | 123 | 90 |
| 2022 | 109 | 112 | 87 |
| 2023 | 138 | 137 | 104 |
| 2024 | 153 | 146 | 116 |
I didn’t want to eliminate HR It might be more accurate to divide those hits into some combination of singles, doubles, triples, and inside the park homers. Valuing the dingers as doubles is close enough for demonstration purposes. What is obvious here is that Ohtani would be a fantastic offensive player if he never attempted a steal. Reducing the value of his home run hits takes away much more offense that his steals.
What we should be celebrating with his steals is his extremely high SB percentage. He’s only been caught four times! Ohtani’s 92.7 stolen base percentage is the third best of the expansion era for anyone with 50 attempts. Jimmy Rollins went 47 for 50 in 2008, and Jacoby Ellsbury went 52 for 56 in 2013. Note that fourth on the list is Davey Lopes 47 for 51 in 1985 (tied by CJ Abrams in 2023), so high SB% are not unusual to the Dodgers. Because of the great SB rate, taking the steals away from Ohtani knocks him down seven runs instead of one or two. If a slugger is going to run, that’s the way to do it.
I know lots of fans love stolen bases, and major league baseball went out of it’s way to make this type of season possible. The top two power speed numbers happened with the change of the pick-off rule and the enlarged bases, so the league got their wish.
Looking at the chart brought up another thought, however. When Ohtani underwent his first Tommy John surgery, I wrote:
Ohtani should give up the two-way player option. He’s a fine hitter, and worth the money on that side of the ball. Let him and just hit and have a longer career.
BaseballMusings.com
Look at the fantastic season he posted while not having to worry about pitching. He’s worth one WAR less this season than in either of previous two seasons, and very close to his 8.0 combined WAR in 2021. Is it really worth an extra WAR a season to have him keep pitching? What if the next pitching injury takes his bat out of the lineup as well?
Personally, I’d like to see how many 50 home runs seasons he can post, how many triples he can hit, and if can keep stealing bases at an extremely high rate. I’m willing to trade a his pitching ability to make that possible.
The Tigers are tied with the Twins for the third AL Wild Card slot, but Minnesota won the season series 7-6. Detroit tries to chase down the Wild Card leading Orioles, but the Tigers have not announced a starting pitcher for the game. They will face Corbin Burnes, who already set a career high in wins with 14. In as possible three way tie between the Royals, Tigers and Twins, Minnesota gets the high seed, the Royals get the next seed, and the Tigers are either in with the third seed or out.
The Mets try to keep the Phillies magic number at four as Philadelphia sends Cristopher Sanchez against David Peterson. Both pitchers do a great job of limiting home runs.
Enjoy!
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:
It looks like another good night for the Dodgers as they come home to face the Rockies. In the last three seasons, Freeland is pretty even home and road. In his career, he handled Betts and Freeman very well.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
Iglesias owns a thirteen game hit streak, the longest in the majors at the moment. Witt is the consensus double down pick. Note that the top three on this list are all on teams pushing for a playoff spot, so they are likely to still be bearing down to win.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Thursday’s games changed the order of the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings just a bit. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees rank one and four respectively. Judge went one four three with a walk, while Soto drew a walk in a 3-2 Mariners win.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays moves back into second place after a three for four with a walk and two home runs. He tied for the second highest game score of the day at 82. The Blue Jays won a two-hit shutout of the Rangers 4-0.
Brent Rooker, in third place sat idle with the Athletics on Thursday, as did Manny Machado and the Padres, Machado in fifth place.
Now ranking sixth, Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers posted a game score of 115. He went six for six with two doubles and three home runs, driving in ten runs in a 20-4 win over the Marlins. The 115 is the highest of the season, the third game score over 100 this year and the 23rc over 90. Historically, it is the second highest game score since 1920, second only to Dodgers great Shawn Green, who posted a score of 117 on May 23, 2002. Ohtani also broke Green’s single season Dodgers record for home runs, 49 in 2001
Although stolen bases do not count for the batting score, he stole two bases to give him 51 homers and 51stolen bases on the season. That makes him the first offensive player to hit 50 homers and steal 50 bases. He has not quite caught up with Ronald Acuna Jr. in terms of power-speed number. Ohtani is at 51. Acuna, with 41 homers and 73 steals in 2023 stands at 52.5.
The Day by Day Database is up to date.
The Dodgers lead the Marlins 14-3 in the top of the eighth inning, and Shohei Ohtani already played a monster of a game. Early on he knocked out two doubles and stole a base, his 50th. He would add another steal before coming to bat in the sixth and seventh inning, homering in both for his 49th and 50th of the season. That puts him all alone in the 50-50 club.
Ohtani came into this game in a bit of an on base slump. Since the start of August he owned a .235 BA with a .298 OBP. Twenty three of his 42 went for extra bases, including sixteen home runs. If this game marks the return of Ohtani as a complete hitter, the Dodgers are looking much better going into the playoffs.
Update: The Dodgers win 20-4 as Ohtani hits a third home run in the game! He’s six for six with 17 total bases. He’s only the seventh player to record at least seventeen total bases in a game.
The Guardians defeated the Twins 3-2 in ten innings. That puts Cleveland into the playoffs, the third team to read the post season.
A 3-2 sums up the season well for the team. They are middle of the pack in the AL in runs per game at 4.43 runs per game. Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor led the hitter with lots of home runs and both over 100 RBI.
The pitching and defense, despite the pitching injuries, played very well. They allowed 3.91 runs per game second lowest in the AL. Like the Brewers, the pitching staff relied on the bullpen. The staters allowed a .252/.318/.449 slash line, while the reliever came in at .202/.275/.327 through Wednesday. If you’re going to beat Cleveland, get to them early.
The Giants go for a sweep of the Orioles as Logan Webb takes on Zach Eflin. Webb needs 6 1/3 innings to reach 200 in a season for the second year in a row. Eflin turned out to be a great pickup for the Orioles. In seven starts he posted a Karen Valentine ERA of 2.22, allowing just five walks in 44 2/3 innings.
The Yankees go for a sweep of the Mariners with Clarke Schmidt facing Logan Gilbert. Schmidt allowed just two runs in 10 1/3 innings since his return from the illjured list, walking just two batters. Gilbert, at one more inning than last season, allowed 33 fewer hits, six fewer home runs, and two fewer walks. That all helped drop his ERA half a run.
The Phillies can reduce their magic number of four by three tonight with a win over the Mets. Philadelphia leads the season series 6-3 with four games this weekend. A sweep by the Mets would give them the tie breaker, but a win by Philadelphia tonight gives them the tie breaker and a magic number of one.
Enjoy!
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
Walker owns a low K rate, go he allows the ball to be put in play. Iglesias strikes out infrequently, and owns a .371 BABIP this season. You can see that this matchup heavily favors Iglesias. Career, Iglesias is four for twelve against Walker with a walk, a hit by pitch, and no strikeouts.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
The NN also sees the Iglesia-Walker matchup favorably. Yainer Diaz is also the unanimous double down pick.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Manny Machado of the Padres takes over the fifth slot in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings with a two for four, both hits home runs as San Diego beat Houston 4-0. Machado picked up his game mid June, and since then hit .307/.349/.586, with 40 of his 95 hits going for extra bases. Since then the Padres stand 50-28, with the best winning percentage in the majors.
Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees rank one and four respectively after a 2-1, ten inning win over the Mariners. Judge drew a walk in four trips, while Soto singled and drew two walks. A base running mistake in the bottom of the tenth by 16th ranked Julio Rodriguez cost Seattle the game. The Yankees clinch a playoff berth and lead the Orioles by five games for the division lead.
Brent Rooker of the Athletics went two for three with two walks and an RBI, driving in hi 110th run of the season. That helped beat the Cubs 5-3, and puts Rooker in second place. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays went 0 for 4 in 2-0 Rangers win to rank 3rd.
The best game score of the day belonged to Marcell Ozuna of the Braves, a 75. He posted a three for four game with two doubles and a home run. Ozuna may be the best overall hitter in the NL this season. Although he doesn’t lead in any single average category, he ranks high in all three and is the only NL player to appear in the top five in all three. He currently ranks 17 on my list.
The Day by Day Database is up to date.
It took 13 innings, but the Angels beat the White Sox 4-3 on Wednesday. They lost in a very White Sox fashion as with a runner on third and one out, Chicago brought the infield in, only to have the ball in play deflect off the third baseman to allow the runner to score.
Chicago needs to win five more games to finish with a higher winning percentage than the 1962 Mets (.250). Here are the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 40 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.304 | 0.896 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.906 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7) | 0.353 | 0.823 |
Chicago only needs three more wins to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 38 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.304 | 0.452 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.474 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7) | 0.353 | 0.330 |
This evening the probabilities still point to a finish worse than the 1962 Mets, and it’s back to a near certainty. Their Pythagorean winning percentage gives them a one in five chance of 41 wins. Finishing worse than the 1916 Athletics is less likely, the White Sox now favored to beat that mark. It’s going to be close, but they have an very good chance of finishing better than the A’s and worse than the Mets.
The Athletics beat the Cubs 5-3 Wednesday afternoon. The Cubs loss was all that Milwaukee needed to clinch the NL Central title, as Milwaukee holds the tie breaker. It is still possible for the teams to finish with the same record, but the expanded playoff cannot afford an extra day for a division deciding game.
Although the first to clinch, the Brewers hold the third best record in among the NL division leaders. That means they would be looking at hosting the wild card round. The are two games behind the Dodgers, but Los Angeles holds the tie breaker.
Note that the Brewers so far played two games below their Pythagorean Projection, and the Dodgers are +2. As of this morning, Milwaukee ranked third in runs scored per game in the NL and second in fewest runs allowed per game. In both measures they are better than the Phillies and the Dodgers, but it has not resulted in them sitting atop the NL.
Still, it is a remarkable performance given their off-season when their star manager went to Chicago and their star pitcher wound up in Baltimore. A number of hitters rose to the occasion, including rookie Jackson Chourio and veteran Christian Yelich, now out for the season.
On the pitching side, the staters were okay, but the bullpen pitched lights out. They held batters to a .224/.295/.360 slash line, limiting both on base and power.
Congratulations to the Brewers. Another team lacking a championship gets a chance to end their drought in 21st century.
The Cubs attempt to stay alive for the NL Central title as they host the Athletics in an afternoon game at Wrigley Field. Milwaukee holds the tie breaker, so a Brewers win or a Cubs defeat crown the Brewers as the first division winner of 2024. Brady Basso takes on Justin Steele. Basso owns a 1.23 ERA in 14 2/3 innings, allowing just one home runs and two walks. Steele also limits walks and home runs, holding opponents to a .274 OBP and a .333 slugging percentage this season.
The Astros at the Padres offer a good veteran pitching matchup as Framber Valdez faces Dylan Cease. Valdez owns a 1.74 ERA in his last eleven starts, allowing just 3 home runs in 72 1/3 innings. Cease ranks third in the majors in K per 9 IP since the start of 2021 at the 400 inning level. Note that he pitched many more innings than the people surrounding him.
Aaron Nola takes on Freddy Peralta as first place teams the Phillies and Brewers battle in Milwaukee. Nola stands 7-2 against the Brewers with a 2.76 ERA in his career. Peralta has never beaten Philadelphia.
Enjoy!
Luisangel Acuna started his major league career with a bang. He went five for eleven with a double, a home run, and just one strikeout for the Mets. It looks like it might be fun to see the brothers Acuna competing against each other in the NL East over the next few years.
The Angels beat the White Sox 5-0 on Tuesday as Chicago continues to do poorly in games in which they don’t score a run. They lead the majors in times shut out at 19. (Their cross town rivals, the Cubs, are tied for the NL lead with 15.)
Chicago needs to win five more games to finish with a higher winning percentage than the 1962 Mets (.250). Here are the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 40 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.306 | 0.839 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.857 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7) | 0.355 | 0.740 |
Chicago only needs three more wins to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 38 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.306 | 0.367 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.394 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7) | 0.355 | 0.251 |
This morning’s the probabilities still point to a finish worse than the 1962 Mets, and it’s back to a near certainty. Their Pythagorean winning percentage gives them a one in four chance of 41 wins, and as we’ve seen with Beat the Streak that is no sure thing. Finishing worse than the 1916 Athletics is less likely, the White Sox now favored to beat that mark. It’s going to be close, but they have an very good chance of finishing better than the A’s and worse than the Mets.
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top picks:
It looks like a good day for both the Diamondbacks and Cardinals. Grichuk platoons against left-handed pitchers, and Gomber throws left-handed.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
Arraez moves from the bottom to the top but with a rather low probability of a hit. His 0 for 5 on Tuesday ended the NN’s longest hit streak of the season at 15. Grichuk stands as the consensus top pick, while Newman get the double down nod. The Diamondbacks play this afternoon, so get your picks in early.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Juan Soto of the Yankees moves back into the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings with a two for two with two walks, a double and his 40th home run of his season and 200th of his career. His teammate, Aaron Judge, remains in first place as he posted a two for four with a walk and a double in an 11-2 win over the Mariners. New York owns a four-game lead over Baltimore, and the Mariners drop five games behind the Astros.
Second place Vladimir Guerrero Jr.went three for five with a double, but the Rangers take the game 13-8. In the same game, Wyatt Langford of the Rangers posted a game score of 82, tied for the best of the day. Langford went three for four with two walks, two doubles and a home run. He hasn’t produced much power in his rookie season with a .405 slugging percentage but he did knock out 25 doubles and four triples with his good speed.
Brent Rooker of the Athletics drops to third place after a one for three with a walk in a 4-3 win over the Cubs. Yordan Alvarez of the Astros singled and walked in a 4-3 win over the Padres for fourth place.
The other game score of 82 belonged to Jesus Sanchez of the Marlins, five for five with two doubles in an 11-9 win over the Dodgers. Sanchez needed a big game as his season averages sit at .252/.306/.424. In the second season of his prime years he failed to build on a pretty good 2023.
The Day by Day Database is up to date.
Shohei Ohtani hit his 48th home run of the season to match his 48 steals. That gives him a power/speed number of 48, second all-time to Ronald Acuna Jr.in 2023. In looking at the top PS numbers, none of the top scores came with the same number of home runs and steals. Ohtani seems to have been even a number of times this season. Canseco in 1988 and Bonds in 1996 were both 42 home runs and 40 steals. Soriano in 2002 was 39 HR and 41 SB. Vladimir Guerrero in 2002 and Matt Kemp in 2011 were both 39 home runs and 40 steals. You need to go down to Shawn Green in 1998, who was 35-35. Maybe it’s a Dodgers thing.
Also, with the top two PS number coming in the era of bigger bases and limited pick offs, some people might see Alex Rodriguez‘s 1998 season of 42 homer and 46 steals, a 43.9 PS, as the best power-speed season of all time. On the other hand, most of the other high PS numbers came in the steroid era, so maybe this is a good ranking after all.
Jeff Passan of ESPN takes a deep dive into the White Sox clubhouse and finds a team that is coping with losing. Here, for example, is Davis Martin:
“We’ve talked about like, ‘Oh, we’re having a good time.’ We are,” said Martin, a 27-year-old right-hander who’s thankful to be back after he missed last season rehabilitating from Tommy John surgery. “Really, these are a great group of guys. And I think if there was any other group of guys in here, it would be the most miserable existence ever. People are like, ‘Oh, how are you not losing your mind?’ We’re a bunch of young idiots just trying to make sure we have a job next year.”
ESPN.com
Tonight they go for their fourth win in a row. That would match their longest winning streak of the season, accomplished just once.
The White Sox beat the Angels 8-4 on Monday. It is the first time Chicago won three games in a row since June 29th.
Chicago needs to win five more games to finish with a higher winning percentage than the 1962 Mets (.250). Here are the three generous estimates of their intrinsic winning percentage and probability of no more than 40 wins:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 40 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.308 | 0.772 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.798 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7) | 0.357 | 0.650 |
Chicago only needs three more wins to finish with a better winning percentage than the 1916 Athletics. That team went 36-117, a .2353 winning percentage. If the White wind up 38-124, they would own a .2346 winning percentage, and set the modern record for lowest winning percentage in a season. Here are the probabilities for that happening:
| Method | Intrinsic WPct | Probability of No More than 38 Wins |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on actual wins | 0.308 | 0.293 |
| Replacement Level | 0.296 | 0.323 |
| 95% Confidence Interval based on Pythagorean wins (+7) | 0.357 | 0.187 |
This morning the probabilities still point to a finish worse than the 1962 Mets, but it’s no longer a foregone conclusion. The three wins in a row make finishing worse than the 1916 Athletics much less likely, the White Sox now favored to beat that mark. It’s going to be close, but they have an very good chance of finishing better than the A’s and worse than the Mets.
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
Both Arraez and Kwan are listed as day to day. Arraez extended his hit streak to fourteen games. It’s a knee injury for Arraez, so we’ll see if he plays tonight.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
The order is a little different, but the two systems agree on Arraez and Witt as the double down choice, or Witt and Iglesias if Arraez can’t play.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
The idle Aaron Judge of the Yankees remains atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. His closest competition now comes from Brent Rooker of the Athletics. Rooker went two for five with a home run and two RBI in a 9-2 Cubs win. The also idle Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays drops to third place. Yordan Alvarez of the Astros posted a one for four for fourth place, and in the same game Luis Arraez of the Padres kept his hit streak alive with a two for four with a double and sits in fifth place. The Padres took the game 3-1.
Andrew Benintendi of the White Sox posted the best game score of the day, an 82. He blasted two home runs and two walks as Chicago wins their third game in a row, an 8-4 victory over the Angels.
Benintendi posted a miserable four months of play. Through July 25th he batted .196/.252/.308, with just 16 extra-base hits. That put him 157th in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Since then he hit .287/.362/.567 with 22 extra-base hits to rise to 11th in the Rankings.
The Day by Day Database is up to date.
Red Sox manager Alex Cora may be in trouble over a missed attempt to hit Aaron Judge with a pitch:
One day after Red Sox manager Alex Cora seemed to admit his team tried to intentionally hit Yankees star Aaron Judge with a pitch after Rafael Devers was punked early in Saturday’s game, Major League Baseball is investigating the batter.
The league is looking into if the Red Sox violated any rules when right-hander Brayan Bello threw a pitch behind Judge in the sixth inning of Saturday’s 7-1 win. It’s possible Cora and Bello could face league discipline in the form of warnings, fines or suspensions.
MassLive.com
Or could it be more? This would not be the first time Cora flouted the rules of the game. He already lost time from his managerial duties due to cheating. Will MLB see this as an isolated incident or a second strike?
Every Monday Baseball Musings compares offense in the current season to the previous season through the same number of full weeks. Through 24 weeks, the major league game produced 8.83 runs per game compared to 9.26 in 2023. The 2024 season gained on 2023 through the summer, but the last five weeks proved low scoring, and 2024 now trails by over 0.4 runs. If you’ve been following the series, you know that all the stats that contribute to the game are down. The most disturbing to me is that both strikeouts and hits are down. Fewer Ks should lead to more balls in play and more hits, but that just hasn’t happened. With walks down about 0.8 fewer batters are reach base per game.
Last week saw the majors produce 8.36 runs per game. That’s the second lowest week 24 since 2015. HR have been low for the second week in a row, and blame Aaron Judge.
The Twins open a four-game series in Cleveland, trailing the Guardians by 6 1/2 games. Minnesota needs a sweep and some help to have a chance at the AL Central title. Pablo Lopez opens the series against Matthew Boyd. Lopez pitched great since June 23rd, going 9-2 with a 2.32 ERA, giving up just 17 walks in 89 1/3 innings. Boyd makes just his seventh start of the season, so far posting a 2.18 ERA in 33 innings.
The Dodgers and Braves finish up their wraparound series with Yoshinobu Yamamoto facing Max Fried. Yamamoto makes his second start since returning from the illjured list. He allowed one unearned run in four inning against the Cubs in his return, striking out eight. Fried’s strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is up, leading to an ERA over a run higher than last season.
First place teams spar in Milwaukee and as the Phillies visit the Brewers. The Brewers stand four games behind Philadelphia in the for best record in the league. Ranger Suarez and Aaron Civale take the hill. Suarez had a rough second half of the season, posting a 6.02 ERA in his last eight games, giving up 53 hits in 40 1/3 innings. Civale posted a 5.08 ERA this season playing for the Rays, but dropped that to 3.84 in eleven starts with the Brewers. He cut down on his hits allowed.
Enjoy!
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
It looks like a good day for the Diamondbacks, although some of the players listed for the team are down on the depth chart.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
The two systems are in agreement at the top today, with Arraez and Iglesias the double down pair.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!